SKHY LONG · 4h

The 1h rally swept above prior swing highs (164.09/172.79) and impulsively rejected right at 175.54, a classic liquidity grab (BSL sweep) followed by reversal. The bearish FVG left behind in the 168.7→162 drop (166~169) plus the 1h EMA20 (167.1) form the short retracement entry zone. Stop sits above the sweep high (175.7), targets at SSL (150.07) and the spring low (145.67). However T1-based RR is only 1.89, below the 2:1 threshold, so this view is excluded from the final confluence tally; holding 159 support without losing 162 would reopen a long re-evaluation.

The 152.62→194.92 surge, reversing on record volume (23.4M), reads as a Buying Climax; the subsequent AR fell to 145.67, forming a 150~175 trading range. 145.67 could be a spring (undercut and recovery, implying re-accumulation), but the more recent retest of 175.54 was rejected on shrinking volume (7.5M), closer to an Upthrust (UT). The base case after a UT is a retest of range lows (152~150), but T1-based RR is only 1.83, below 2:1, so it is excluded from the tally. If 150 support holds firmly on rising volume, this flips to re-accumulation (awaiting SOS), invalidating the short.

Counting 135→194.92 as a 5-wave impulse fails the overlap rule (wave-4 low 145.67 enters wave-1 territory), invalidating the impulse count. Instead this reads as an ABC correction off the 194.92 high: wave A (194.92→145.67), wave B (145.67→175.54, landing precisely on the 0.618 retracement of A at 175.1), with wave C now in progress. The C=A projection targets 126.3, the 0.618×A projection ~145, prioritizing T1 150 / T2 145.67 — but T1 RR is 1.97, just short of 2:1, so it is excluded from the tally. An alternate count (new impulse from 145.67, currently in wave 2) exists, but the precise 0.618 rejection at 175.54 favors the ABC read.

At the 15m swing high, price made a higher-high (174.56→175.54) while RSI made a lower-high (75.7→63.0) — a clean regular bearish divergence that already preceded the current drop. On 1h, 175.54 confirmed a higher-high with RSI at 73.9, so no higher-timeframe divergence exists; the signal is confined to the 15m. The current leg is making lower-lows in both price and RSI (167.04→161.28, 28.2→23.9), so no bullish divergence has formed yet at the low; with 15m RSI at 23.9 (oversold), a bounce into 166~169 followed by renewed selling is favored. Because the signal has already played out, T1 RR is only 1.55 — too weak, and excluded from the tally.

The macro backdrop is mixed — a hawkish tilt into the 7/28~29 FOMC and geopolitical risk-off dollar strength (DXY ~100.9) are near-term headwinds, but SK Hynix's own HBM4 supercycle (confirmed Nvidia Vera Rubin supply, 56.4% HBM share) and the imminent Q2 2026 earnings (7/22~23, consensus +260% YoY revenue) offer a stronger offsetting tailwind. From a trend-following view, 1D/12H/4H all retain a higher-low structure (145.67→150.07→152.5) after the 135→194.92 impulse, with EMA20>EMA50 intact, so the current pullback reads as a retest of the 158~162 EMA confluence rather than a trend reversal. A market entry (162) fails the RR>2 test, so a pullback entry zone of 158~161 (primary, RR 2.3) was set, invalidated on a close below 148 (HL structure break). Earnings gap risk and the possibility of a repeat BoK-driven semiconductor chain shock (as on 7/16) cap confidence at 52.

SK Hynix is a core beneficiary of the AI memory supercycle: record Q1 2026 results (net profit ~$29B, 77% net margin), a successful Nasdaq listing ($26.5B raised, ~7x oversubscribed), 56.4% HBM market share, and the start of HBM4 mass production. HBM demand is sold out through end-2026, with Micron and Samsung supply delayed until 2027, supporting pricing power and margins. China's antidumping probe and the US export-license shift (VEU wind-down) are risks, but low China dependence limits near-term impact. Bullish items (5) far outnumber bearish (2), but post-listing volatility and gap risk into the 8/10 Q2 earnings print mean the direction is strongly LONG while near-term timing risk must be respected.