EWY LONG · multi (15m~1D)
| Entry | 164~168 |
|---|---|
| Stop | 160 |
| Target | 184 / 192 / 197.5 |
| R:R | 3.0 |
| Confidence | 55% |
Rationale
- Of the 5 perspectives that clear the RR>2.0 filter, 4 (ICT, Wyckoff, Divergence, Macro/Trend) are long and only 1 (Elliott) is short — the directional consensus favors long (News's own short scenario fails the filter at RR 1.22~1.82, while its RR-qualifying scenario is itself long at 2.60).
- The 4H/1H/15m lower timeframes simultaneously confirm a higher-low transition (161.68→162.58) since the 154.20 low, a 1H break of structure above 169.0, and a bullish CHoCH, with MACD histograms improving/turning positive across 4H (-1.25→+0.72), 12H (-5.75→-4.41), and 1H (+1.05) — consistent with the confirmed 4H bullish regular divergence.
- Macro and news catalysts line up: SK Hynix's Nasdaq ADR listing ($26.5B) drove record EWY ETF inflows ($814M on 7/16, $1.1B on 7/17), KOSPI surged +3.56% (6747.95) on 7/21, and Korean semiconductor exports rose +180% YoY — this short-term tailwind coincides with the lower-timeframe reversal.
- Conflicting factors are also material: H1 foreign net-selling of $110B ($31B in June alone, a record) is ongoing, the BoK delivered a surprise hike to 2.75% on 7/16 (its first in 3.5 years), and the Fed's 9:8 hawkish split keeps DXY firm at 100.6~101.2 — these structural headwinds keep confidence capped at 55.
- 1D/12H structure has not fully escaped the lower-highs pattern from the 220.89 top and bearish EMA stack (EMA20 below EMA50, price beneath both) — Elliott uses this to read the current bounce as a B-wave retracement and proposes a 184~190 short (RR 2.57), the sole dissenting view factored into the final call.
- The FOMC meeting (7/28~29) and SK Hynix's official Q2 earnings release land concurrently — entry is therefore restricted to a pullback limit zone (164~168) rather than a market-order chase, to minimize pre-event exposure.
Analysis by methodology
Against the 154.20~220.89 range, the equilibrium (EQ) sits at 187.5, so the current 172.9 print is a discount. The 1H chart shows a bullish FVG/imbalance spanning 162.72~169.77 plus a bullish CHoCH, signaling short-term liquidity is targeting the buyside pools at 185.43/192.25/220.89. Entry is taken on the FVG retracement at 164~169 (mid 166.5), stop below the SSL at 154.20 buffer (158.5), with T1 near EQ at 183.0 giving RR=(183-166.5)/(166.5-158.5)=2.06, just clearing the 2:1 bar. Confidence is capped at 58 because the 1D/12H HTF bias is still bearish; failure to hold above the swept 154.20 SSL invalidates the long.
The 220.89→154.20 decline on heavy volume (43~46M) reads as supply overwhelming demand (SOW); the 154.20 candle's lower wick and close recovery on 38.3M volume has the signature of a Selling Climax (SC). The 169~174 bounce that followed is the Automatic Rally (AR), and price is now testing whether a Secondary Test (ST) holds in the 157~162 zone on diminishing volume. If the ST confirms, re-accumulation into markup would target 179.0 then 190.0, with entry at 159.5 (mid) and stop at 150.5 giving RR=2.17. Confidence is capped at 47 since a large-scale distribution top remains a live alternative; a high-volume breakdown through 150.5 kills the accumulation thesis.
The primary count treats 220.89 as the end of a 5-wave advance, with 220.89→154.20 as the A-wave of a larger correction (4H sub-impulse: 220.89-210.48-202.90-192.25-185.43). The current bounce is read as a B-wave retracement, with selling pressure expected to build near the 0.382/0.5/0.618 retracement levels at 179.7/187.5/195.4. Short entry is placed at 184~190 (mid 187), stop at 197.5 (above the 0.618 level), targeting the C-wave decline path of 160.0→148.0→140.0, giving RR=(187-160)/(197.5-187)=2.57, comfortably above 2:1. Confidence is capped at 52 because an alternative count — the correction already ending at 154.20 with a new expansion underway — remains viable; a close above 197.5 immediately invalidates this count.
On the 4H chart, price made a lower low from 174.42 to 154.20 while the MACD histogram improved from -2.14 to -1.25 — a textbook bullish regular divergence. Since then 4H RSI turned from 36.5 to 47.0 with the MACD histogram flipping positive (+0.72), and the 1H RSI likewise rose from 38 to 61.2 with MACD at +1.05, giving multi-timeframe momentum alignment. The 12H MACD histogram also improved from -5.75 to -4.41, reinforcing the divergence signal's reliability. Entry is at 164~168 (mid 166), stop at 157.0, with T1 at the mean-reversion target near EQ (185.0) giving RR=(185-166)/(166-157)=2.11; a break below 157 negates the divergence thesis.
Global macro is a structural headwind (Fed hawkish 9:8 split, ~19.4% priced odds of a further 25bp hike, DXY firm at 100.6~101.2), but since mid-July a strong idiosyncratic tailwind has dominated short-term: SK Hynix's Nasdaq ADR listing ($26.5B) drove record EWY ETF inflows ($814M on 7/16, $1.1B on 7/17), and KOSPI surged +3.56% (6747.95) on 7/21. Structurally, 1D/12H have not fully escaped the lower-highs pattern and bearish EMA stack from the 220.89 top (EMA20 179.66 < EMA50 180.85, price below both), but 4H/1H/15m show a higher-low transition (161.68→162.58) since the 154.20 low plus a 1H break of structure above 169.0 — the lower timeframes are reversing first. Entry is the 1H BOS retracement zone at 165~168 (mid 166.5), stop at 161.0 (below 4H EMA200 161.76 and the prior HL at 162.58), T1 at 184.0 (1D EMA50/BB-mid cluster), giving RR=(184-166.5)/(166.5-161)=3.18. Confidence is capped at 54 given the coexisting headwinds of $110B H1 foreign outflows and the BoK's surprise hike to 2.75%.
The news team's headline call is short-term BEARISH (confidence 62), driven by KOSPI's -4.46% single-day drop on 7/21 (-20.72% over 1 month), ongoing H1 foreign net-selling of $110B ($31B in June alone), and SK Hynix's Q2 miss (60.4T won operating profit vs. 65T consensus, -8%). However, the at-market short (entry 169~172, stop 185, target 160) yields RR=1.22, and even the improved variant (entry 164.5, stop 177, target 154.2) only reaches RR=1.82 — both fail the project's RR>2.0 filter, so this short scenario is discarded from the confluence count. The pullback-long scenario the same news team proposed (entry 162~165, stop 154.2, target 190) clears the filter at RR=2.60, and lines up with the medium-term tailwinds: +52.3% exports (semiconductors +180% YoY), record EWY ETF inflows, and the Samsung/SK Hynix combined 800T won capex plan. The News perspective is therefore honestly labeled SHORT (its own short-term read), excluded from the final direction vote for failing the RR filter, with the concurrent 7/28~29 FOMC and SK Hynix earnings release flagged as the residual event risk.
Invalidation
1차 무효화 트리거는 4시간봉 종가 기준 161.0 하회다 — 이는 4H EMA200(161.76)과 직전 저점 절상 구조(HL 162.58/161.68)의 동반 붕괴를 의미하며, 즉시 롱 포지션(진입 164~168)을 손절 처리한다. 2차로 154.20 종가 이탈이 발생하면 1D 하락 임펄스가 연장되는 것으로 간주해 138~146 구간(1D EMA200 138.46 부근·구조적 되돌림대)까지 추가 하락이 가능하며, 이 경우 방향을 숏으로 재평가해야 한다(엘리어트 카운트의 C파 시나리오가 재활성화됨). 3차로 7/28~29 FOMC가 예상외로 매파적이거나(추가 인상 시사 강화, DXY 급등) 7/29 SK하이닉스 정식 실적이 컨센서스를 큰 폭 하회할 경우, 진입존(164~168) 도달 전이라도 순풍 전제가 붕괴되므로 신규 진입을 보류하고 재평가해야 한다. 반대로 197.5(엘리어트 0.618 되돌림 상단) 종가 돌파는 숏 대안 시나리오를 완전히 폐기하고 추세 재개(220.89 재도전)로 해석한다.
Context
멀티 타임프레임 구조를 보면 1D/12H는 220.89 고점 이후 고점 절하(220.89→217.76→202.9→192.25→185.43→169.0)가 이어지는 약세 EMA 정렬(1D EMA20 179.66<EMA50 180.85, 가격이 둘 다 아래) 국면으로, 아직 완전한 상승 전환을 확정하지 못했다. 반면 4H는 EMA200(161.76) 위에서 EMA20(173.93) 재탈환을 시도 중이고, 1H는 EMA20/50(169.55/170.97) 위에서 RSI 61.2·MACD 히스토그램 +1.05로 강세 모멘텀을 보이며, 154.20 저점 이후 161.68→162.58 저점 절상(HL)과 169.0 상향 돌파(BOS)가 저위 TF 반전을 뒷받침한다. 핵심 피벗은 세 개다: 하단 154.20(1D/4H 하드 로우, SC 후보), 중단 187.5(레인지 154.20~220.89의 균형가 EQ, 프리미엄/디스카운트 경계이자 다수 관점의 1차 목표 클러스터), 상단 197.5(엘리어트 0.618 되돌림·숏 시나리오 무효화 레벨이자 추세 재개 확인선). 매크로·이벤트 배경으로는 SK하이닉스 나스닥 ADR 상장에 따른 EWY ETF 기록적 자금유입과 7/21 KOSPI 급반등이 저위 TF 반전 시점과 겹치며 단기 순풍을 제공하지만, 외국인 대규모 순매도와 연준 매파 기조라는 역풍이 상존해 1D/12H가 아직 완전히 돌아서지 못한 이유를 설명한다. 이번 진입존(164~168)을 되돌림·지정가로 잡은 이유는, 현재가(172.9)에서 시장가로 진입할 경우 T1(184) 기준 RR이 1.6대에 그쳐 프로젝트 RR>2.0 규칙을 충족하지 못하기 때문이며, 1H BOS 레벨(169.0)과 EMA20/50 클러스터가 겹치는 164~168 구간이 구조적으로 가장 방어 가능한 되돌림 지지대다.