BTC LONG · 4h
| Entry | 64650~65050 |
|---|---|
| Stop | 63900 |
| Target | 66932 / 67477 / 68366 |
| R:R | 2.19 |
| Confidence | 50% |
Rationale
- 3 of 4 technical methods (ICT, Wyckoff, Elliott) favor LONG: 4h BOS (63727.8→66932.3), Phase D markup, and Wave-4 pullback structure align
- News catalysts skew bullish: Clarity Act Senate-passage odds jumped 33%→61% (7/21), imminent national BTC reserve announcement (7/22), ETF inflows recovering (+$46.6M first week of July)
- Confidence capped by headwinds: macro is a genuine headwind (Fed hawkish pivot into FOMC 7/28-29, DXY risk-off strength, 1D EMA still bearishly stacked with unresolved Lower-High structure), and a 4h regular bearish divergence (price HH 65596→66932 vs MACD_hist LH 225→181) remains unconfirmed on 12h/1d, leaving tactical pullback risk
Invalidation
4h 종가 63727.8 하회
Context
63727.8(4h 스윙로우·BOS 기준) 하회 시 롱 논리 붕괴, 67477 상회 종가 시 상승 추세 지속 확인